Mind

9 notes

Changing Decisions The original reasons go on the page next to the facts now in hand, then get asked whether the same pick would be made today. Sticking is not automatically stronger than revising. The new facts are wha
Choice Throttling Choice throttling is a short chain of closed questions that throws options away. Each answer narrows the space. The chain replaces rumination, not willpower over a pile of options.
Decision Making <div class="hub-page-title">
Decisional Delays Between finishing one task and starting the next there is a stretch that appears on no schedule. That's where the next move usually gets decided — which task, what first step, where the materials are
Expectancy in Wicked Environments There is a usable estimate inside almost any messy choice, and this page is how to get it out. The exact version needs posted odds — chance times size on each side, read the sign — and the choices tha
Judging a Decision by Its Process A process judgment is a dated note of why the choice made sense given what was known, written ahead of the result. A sloppy pick can still get lucky, and a sound one can still fail. Those two cases ar
Positional Decisions and Expected Value An unknown result is scored by the options, information, and ruin left for the next choice. A single outcome does not grade that kind of decision. The same kind of pick still has to pay across repeats
Red Teaming Red Teaming is the habit of attacking your own plan before the world gets to it, aimed at the room around the plan as much as at the reasoning inside it. The attack takes three passes: what the plan q
The Uncertainty-Opportunity Tradeoff A model for timing heavy decisions: as more is learned the opening tends to close, so the wait is priced as a purchase instead of treated as a pause.