Mind

9 notes

Changing Decisions Changing a decision is revising an earlier choice when the facts have changed. The method is to write the original reasons for the choice next to the facts now known, then ask whether the same choice
Choice Throttling Choice throttling is a short chain of closed questions. Each question has a yes or no answer, or another small fixed set of answers. Each answer removes some of the options. The chain is a substitute
Decision Making The quality of a decision is fixed at the moment it is made, before any outcome exists to judge it by. The pages in this section apply that claim to four recurring problems: what to do next, when to c
Decisional Delays A decisional delay is the stretch of time between finishing one task and starting the next. That stretch is on no schedule. The next move usually gets decided inside it: which task comes next, what it
Expectancy in Wicked Environments Expectancy is the chance of the good outcome times its size, minus the chance of the bad outcome times its size. The sign of the result says whether a bet is worth taking. The exact calculation needs
Judging a Decision by Its Process A process judgment is a dated note, written before the result exists, of why the choice made sense given what was known at the time. A sloppy choice can still get lucky. A sound choice can still fail.
Positional Decisions and Expected Value A positional decision is a choice made when the result cannot be known in advance. It is scored by the options, information, and ruin it leaves for the next choice. A single outcome does not grade it.
Red Teaming Red Teaming is the practice of looking for weaknesses in your own plan before the plan is put into use. It examines the people who make the plan as closely as it examines the reasoning in the plan. Th
The Uncertainty-Opportunity Tradeoff A model for timing heavy decisions: as more is learned the opening tends to close, so the wait is priced as a purchase instead of treated as a pause.